I worry about Kerry's poll numbers...

Have we learned nothing from the last 18 months? I keep seeing breathless posts on Kos about poll numbers, talk in the coffee shops about trendlines, rumors of inevitability, even whispered talk of blowout in November. I've even indulged myself once or twice. I see shades of '68 - except good for our side. I see reminders of '94 - except good for our side. But here's what bothers me...

Polls. Trendlines. Kerry's up. Kerry's consistently up. Kerry leads in . Electoral vote count shows Kerry winning big. Washington a lock. Ohio in our pocket. Iowa looks like it's ours. Does any of this sound familiar?

Let's think back to November, December, January. There was this guy named Dean leaving giant electoral footprints wherever he went. Leading all the polls. Iowa was ours, and Washington was a lock. All the trendlines were up for Dean, down for everyone else (except Edwards, who kept gaining a comical point or two here and there). There was no way that he would lose, and John Kerry was facing cries on Kos, in the media, even on his own blog, to drop the hell out and get behind Dean now, for unity's sake.

I don't bring this up to cry about Dean anymore (I do that alone, at night, after I'm done posting shit like this). I bring it up so we'll remember that we've won nothing. No poll matters until we walk into our polling place to vote. It's all just interesting graphs and conversation points, but it doesn't mean a damn thing. If my Dean experience taught me anything, it's that the more I think I'm leading, the harder I need to work. Dean never seemed to get that, and I know his supporters never figured it out. I used to say it at Meetups, but only half-heartedly, because I knew I'd be a field organizer for Dean in the general .

We have to start taking Bush more seriously around here. Yes, he's painfully incompetent. Yes, his supporters baffle and frustrate us. Yes, Iraq is falling apart and our economy sucks...but wait. Jobs are coming back. People are switching jobs, a harbinger of hirings to come (we gotta fill those voluntarily vacated positions, right?). Inventories have been suppressed so long that companies are going to be forced into a prolonged bout of production to get us back to par. SOMETHING is going to happen in Iraq on June 30th. It may not be helpful, but there will be little trouble spinning it as keeping our word, and anyone who doesn't think the media will eat that line up didn't see footage of the "I have a scream" speech.

And really, who doesn't think we'll see an attack in the US between now and October? And do you think Americans will go Spain's route? They'll go for the safe and secure, if he hasn't already put us on lockdown and "postponed" elections for "continuity through this troubled time" .

The point is this: We sit here and blog about polls and pat ourselves on the back, and meanwhile these fucking people never rest. They're doing massive phonebanks already. What the hell are we doing? They're sending out buses to do voter registration. What the hell are we doing? Yeah, I know, we've got programs here and there, ACT is doing their thing. But where is our unified, ORGANIZED preparation for a vicious fight in the fall? We're all over the place! DLC is still crying about Dean, DFA tiffs with Trippi (and Kerry?), Kerry seems unwilling to engage a president who is still dangerous.

The sky, it must be noted, is far from falling. But while we've got ourselves an advantageous window, we need to work now to prop up our sky and expand it so we have cushion when it does fall (and it will, at least a little).

So, here I sit at 1:00 in the morning watching Back to the Future (don't ask - TBS is killing me) and ruminating. I hope I've given everyone something to think about. I know most of us are working and trying to get out in front of this thing, but once in a while, I think it's good to shake the tree and get a reminder that much work remains to be done.

You knew this was coming.

The wedding party which contained no musical instruments or leftovers and was therefore just a collection of terrorists when our helicopter gunships took them out?

check this out.

Turns out the whole wedding party is on videotape, the singer from the wedding had his funeral today, and reporters went to the site and found destroyed musical instruments and other trappings of a wedding.

Good lord, this administration is filthy, and the military seems to have lost its mind in Iraq. I have long maintained that they have hellishly difficult job, and will sometimes fire on the wrong target. Weddings in this part of the world typically involve some guns being fired into the air, and a 19 year-old gunship pilot could make a mistake. I understand this - war is difficult, innocent people will sadly be killed.

But why do we continue to deny things that are patently obvious? Why do we lie when there is no conceivable purpose to it? This isn't hearts and minds. You can't cover this stuff up. That ended with Vietnam - the press is there all the time, and a lie will be disproved in the media in no time. Unbelievable.

5,500 dead in Baghdad during occupation

So, the AP has done a survey and found that the violent death rate has risen sharply in Baghdad since the occupation began.

Here's the real nugget of fun:

That doesn't mean Iraq is a more dangerous place than during Saddam Hussein's regime. At least 300,000 people were murdered by security forces and buried in mass graves during the dictator's 23-year rule, U.S. officials say, and human rights workers put the number closer to 500,000.

"We cannot compare the situation now with how it was before," Nouri Jaber al-Nouri, inspector general of the Interior Ministry, said recently. "Iraqis used to fear everything. ... But now, despite all that is happening, we feel safe."

Still, the morgue figures, which exclude trauma deaths from accidents like car wrecks and falls, highlight the insecurity Iraqis feel from the high level of criminal and political violence, and underline the challenges that coalition and Iraqi forces face in trying to bring peace.

So we have, in successive sentences, an assertion that Iraqis feel safe and they feel insecure. I can't imagine how there could be complex feelings about an evil dictator being replaced by a repressive military and US-picked "Council".

More gems:

U.S. forces have records for the numbers of claims for compensation from Iraqis for personal injury, deaths of family members, or for property damage caused by U.S. military action in "non-combat" situations. Some $3 million has been paid to about 5,000 claimants, American officials said last month. About 8,000 claims had been rejected and 3,000 were pending, they said.

Now, granted, they apparently can't say how many claims are for deaths, and that one incident can result in multiple claims (doesn't this seem self-evident? Perhaps I'm missing something)

In trying to downplay this, the AP assures us that the numbers don't compete with Saddam's record, in which he killed between 300,000 and 500,000 in 23 years. This comes to something like 13,000 to 22,000 killed per year.

Since the 5,500 number A: only comes from Baghdad, B: only includes those people brought to the morgue - insurgents are rarely taken to the morgue, as are victims of terrorist bombings, it can be extrapolated that there are many uncounted dead throughout the entire country. How many? Who knows?

The bottom line is, once again, this administration is reduced to proving our goodness by saying we're not as bad as the last guy.

Gettin' fitter by the day

Day 1, day loss program. Let's set the stage:

I'm 34, 5'8". Weighed under 118 throughout my two years of college, when I was on a track scholarship (ego-boost PR's: mile, 4:24, 5k 13:58 - on an admittedly short course - 10k, 32:30. 1/2 marathon, 1:17 and marathon, 5:24. Okay, so I ran the marathon later in life and purty darn slow. But I ran one!). Anyhoo, now I'm right at 200 lbs, and have difficulty walking up stairs. Lifting heavy things makes me lightheaded. This isn't NEARLY normal for someone my age.

So, I've decided to make a change. The lovely lady of the manor got paid, ending our destitution, and took me to the Nike factory outlet to buy some $7 shirts and shorts and ill-fitting cheap shoes. So, this morning I got my fat ass outta bed, went to the Beat the Bridge, and walked four miles (not five - I did the WALK). btw, I hate when the support people cheer and squeal and shriek for the walkers. I'M WALKING! I'M TOO GODDAMN FAT AND LAZY TO RUN! DON'T CHEER MY INABILITY TO PERFORM! *sigh*

Anyway, then I went home and rode my bike...2 miles. Not much, but it's a start. So, we've got a sum total of 4 miles walked and 2 miles ridden after two years of McDonald's and TV. I've already been trying to cut down on the fast food and have had sandwiches for lunch instead of McD's. It's a start! Next I need to cut down on sodas. I'll keep you posted.

Speaking of bikes, I'm sure you've all heard that Bush managed to fall off the wagon his bike this weekend. So, just for fun:

8th CD race gets interesting

So Dave Ross has entered the Dem primary officially.  I know some folks are hacked about this, but I say he's got as much right to enter the race and run as Wes Clark had to jump in the Presidential.  There's no point in saying it isn't fair to jump in after other folks have done all this work to build name recognition.

 

The bad guy here is the state party chair who recruited him.  That was bad mojo, and he deserves all the ire he gets.

 

How does this change the race?  Lotses.  Albens got some mojo and has earned endorsements, including the Gov, and name recognition.  I've noticed he's seemed a little lost since Dunn dropped out of the race - he had built his campaign around defeating an incumbent and wasn't prepared for the switch.  He was just getting it back together, so this is a bit of a blow to him.

 

Heidi B-B is the big loser here, because she was treading water as it was.  No way she can pull her head up in a three-way race with the two titans.

 

Dave brings name recognition, high visibility, and MO into the race.  He doesn't have the cash to personally invest like Alben does, but I believe he'll be able to pull enough together to compete.  He's apparently keeping his radio slot for now, which is questionable, but he addressed the fairness issue fairly well in his monologue, and pointed out that he wouldn't talk about the 8th CD race normally, and won't now unless he's impugned somehow - which we all know will happen.  The great thing for Dave, is he's always been fair and equanimical (a word I use because Mr. Dictionary is still asleep) on his talk show, and has never shied away from his views - we pretty much know where he stands.

 

I say go Dave, and go democracy!

Quick, arrest the Muslim who's been to Spain!

Oh, wait, that doesn't work, does it?

That's right, Brandon Mayfield has been released from jail, due to a complete lack of evidence. Wow, what a surprise! Turns out the fingerprints on the bag belong to an Algerian. Say, isn't that near Spain? As opposed to Portland?

What the hell is wrong with these people? Spain made no particular effort to get after this guy, he's living a quiet life as an attorney in Portland, there's NO FREAKIN' indication he's been to Spain anytime recently...but the FBI has to get after him based on extremely sketchy evidence.

I hope this guy kicks the FBI and our overzealous gummint right in the nads for this. We have got to get ourselves under control and out of this 9/11 tizzy, or we're going to keep going downhill and arresting people who haven't done a damn thing wrong.

The thing is, I keep supporting our intelligence agencies, because I know people who work in the field, and they're intelligent, trustworthy people who genuinely want to protect our country. But we're ALL still in a tizzy over terrah, and even the best among us are quick to assume the worst.

And tonight we see new revelations from Abu Ghraib prison, accompanied by fresh photos. Damn, damn, damn, double damn.

Whether it's 7 or 70 morons responsible for all this, they've now joined with Bush in making America the most hated country in the world, and put all their fellow soldiers at unnecessarily increased risk.

That's all I have tonight - my brain can't take more thinking about this garbage.

CIA about to be exposed for interrogation methods

From tomorrow morning's New York Times, news that the CIA is concerned that with the shift in public opinion after Abu Ghraib, their own methods of interrogation (which they assure us stop short of torture) will come into question.

Here's a thought: If they stop short of torture, and obey all legal limits on interrogation, why would they be worried that we'd find out?

Another thought: Did Bush seriously tell them that he didn't want to know where they were? He so badly wants them to do whatever the hell they want, and needs to have plausible deniability, that he'll actually tell them not to inform him of their actions.

We need a new President, we need a change in the House and Senate, and we need someone to put some goddamn spine in John Kerry. He is a mile better than Bush, but the problem is that isn't saying a lot. Oi.

"I was ordered to pose"

Amazing - Lynndie England is claiming that she was ordered to pose for the now-infamous pictures. Her contention is that her CO wanted her to pose as part of the effort to humiliate the prisoners into giving information.

Unfortunately for pfc. England, logic tells us otherwise. Her line is that they told her to point at a prisoner's genitals and smile for the camera, so they could show the pictures to more important prisoners and frighten them. This is patently ridiculous!

Let's face it, you could easily photoshop a picture like this if that's your purpose - besides the fact that it's a goofy plan in the first place. Yes, this was humiliating for the prisoners involved. But frightening for other prisoners? Highly doubtful, and unless our intelligence officers are completely stupid (I don't think they are), they would know that.

Besides, let's have a smell test on this: Imagine a scenario in which you could imagine you, or anyone you know, ordering someone to strip prisoners to humiliate them into talking. Not a huge stretch, right? Now, imagine you or anyone you know ordering a private to pose for pictures with those prisoners. Not quite so easy.

I call bullshit on this excuse - England and her friends are going down, they know it, and they're throwing whatever they can out there to try and save themselves. They figured no one would care, these were "terrorists" anyway, and it would all be in good fun and soon forgotten. Now, they're not going to get away with it, people do care, many of these prisoners were innocent (Senator Inhoffe's assertions notwithstanding), and their careers are over.

Oi. Somebody get us some leadership at the Pentagon, would you? McCain for SecDef!

Outrage!

From CNN and other sources, this story tells of a brutal murder captured on videotape.

Of course this is an absolute outrage, as no human should be treated in such a way. It's disgusting and reprehensible, and the people responsible should be captured or killed, and brought to justice in whatever way is necessary.

But if we capture them alive, they should not be tortured or abused. Republicans have already been busy acting outraged that anyone would care about the prisoner abuse in Abu Ghraib. They're also busily using today's horrible news as an ex post facto justification for Abu Ghraib.

It is not a justification. It is an outrage. It turns out, Americans are fully capable of being outraged at our enemies' behavior as well as our own.

Having already seen Republicans start this spin machine, there is now no way to explore this topic without politicizing it - we have them to thank for the vaguely slimy way it feels now to discuss this.

But the reality is, these murderers should be caught alive if at all possible, kept in humane conditions, and tried by a jury, convicted, and serve the sentence chosen for them by a judge. This is how justice works in America and throughout most of the world. Real patriots, and real Americans, follow the rule of law, not the rule of vengeance. Let us seek justice now, rather than revenge.

Goodbye, Nick Berg. You were an honorable person trying to do the right thing, and didn't deserve the fate you met. I hope we do your memory justice as we find and punish those who killed you.

Sunday night!

I've had enough, I cain't stands it no more! Time for me to get my voice on again.

The world has been patient enough, and it's time to get Switzer's take on things. First of all, what the hell is with the prison photos?

While it's deplorable what's happened there, and everyone involved should be punished, the question is who is really responsible? Many leap to the idea that Bush is that responsible party. That may be so. Some say this is proof that the military is just an imperialist machine, bent on destroying those poor Iraqis that we hate so much.

I think it's simpler, and more complex than we want to think. We need to know who made the decisions, if there were any, that led to the behavior. Anyone with children can tell you that sometimes no decision is made, behavior just follows its own natural course - from a minor wrong to a serious injustice is not as long a path as we like to believe. But can anyone really be surprised? Are people foolish enough to think we sent 135,000 golden angels over there?

The odds are against it. Take that many people, some of whom are overly macho and designed for the military, some of whom are broken people looking to straighten out their lives in the military, and some who don't even want to be there...but all of whom are trained to be aggressive and kill. Put them in a country where they're hated and shot at constantly. Let them see their friends and comrades killed by the locals.

Now tell me you're surprised that we might have 7, or 17, or 700 really bad people in that group. Tell me you're surprised some of them might commit atrocities against innocent (or even not-so-innocent) Iraqis. This isn't an argument for never going into war; sometimes you must. But this is an argument for putting serious thought into what you're doing when you send the military overseas. We know this kind of thing will happen, and one of many questions you must ask before committing to war is, will the end result be worth dealing with this type of atrocity? In this case, I don't think so.

Rumsfeld has to go. But first, he has some questions to answer. I say it's long past time we start hearing those answers.