I worry about Kerry's poll numbers...
Have we learned nothing from the last 18 months? I keep seeing breathless posts on Kos about poll numbers, talk in the coffee shops about trendlines, rumors of inevitability, even whispered talk of blowout in November. I've even indulged myself once or twice. I see shades of '68 - except good for our side. I see reminders of '94 - except good for our side. But here's what bothers me...
Polls. Trendlines. Kerry's up. Kerry's consistently up. Kerry leads in. Electoral vote count shows Kerry winning big. Washington a lock. Ohio in our pocket. Iowa looks like it's ours. Does any of this sound familiar?
Let's think back to November, December, January. There was this guy named Dean leaving giant electoral footprints wherever he went. Leading all the polls. Iowa was ours, and Washington was a lock. All the trendlines were up for Dean, down for everyone else (except Edwards, who kept gaining a comical point or two here and there). There was no way that he would lose, and John Kerry was facing cries on Kos, in the media, even on his own blog, to drop the hell out and get behind Dean now, for unity's sake.
I don't bring this up to cry about Dean anymore (I do that alone, at night, after I'm done posting shit like this). I bring it up so we'll remember that we've won nothing. No poll matters until we walk into our polling place to vote. It's all just interesting graphs and conversation points, but it doesn't mean a damn thing. If my Dean experience taught me anything, it's that the more I think I'm leading, the harder I need to work. Dean never seemed to get that, and I know his supporters never figured it out. I used to say it at Meetups, but only half-heartedly, because I knew I'd be a field organizer for Dean in the general .
We have to start taking Bush more seriously around here. Yes, he's painfully incompetent. Yes, his supporters baffle and frustrate us. Yes, Iraq is falling apart and our economy sucks...but wait. Jobs are coming back. People are switching jobs, a harbinger of hirings to come (we gotta fill those voluntarily vacated positions, right?). Inventories have been suppressed so long that companies are going to be forced into a prolonged bout of production to get us back to par. SOMETHING is going to happen in Iraq on June 30th. It may not be helpful, but there will be little trouble spinning it as keeping our word, and anyone who doesn't think the media will eat that line up didn't see footage of the "I have a scream" speech.
And really, who doesn't think we'll see an attack in the US between now and October? And do you think Americans will go Spain's route? They'll go for the safe and secure, if he hasn't already put us on lockdown and "postponed" elections for "continuity through this troubled time" .
The point is this: We sit here and blog about polls and pat ourselves on the back, and meanwhile these fucking people never rest. They're doing massive phonebanks already. What the hell are we doing? They're sending out buses to do voter registration. What the hell are we doing? Yeah, I know, we've got programs here and there, ACT is doing their thing. But where is our unified, ORGANIZED preparation for a vicious fight in the fall? We're all over the place! DLC is still crying about Dean, DFA tiffs with Trippi (and Kerry?), Kerry seems unwilling to engage a president who is still dangerous.
The sky, it must be noted, is far from falling. But while we've got ourselves an advantageous window, we need to work now to prop up our sky and expand it so we have cushion when it does fall (and it will, at least a little).
So, here I sit at 1:00 in the morning watching Back to the Future (don't ask - TBS is killing me) and ruminating. I hope I've given everyone something to think about. I know most of us are working and trying to get out in front of this thing, but once in a while, I think it's good to shake the tree and get a reminder that much work remains to be done.
Polls. Trendlines. Kerry's up. Kerry's consistently up. Kerry leads in
Let's think back to November, December, January. There was this guy named Dean leaving giant electoral footprints wherever he went. Leading all the polls. Iowa was ours, and Washington was a lock. All the trendlines were up for Dean, down for everyone else (except Edwards, who kept gaining a comical point or two here and there). There was no way that he would lose, and John Kerry was facing cries on Kos, in the media, even on his own blog, to drop the hell out and get behind Dean now, for unity's sake.
I don't bring this up to cry about Dean anymore (I do that alone, at night, after I'm done posting shit like this). I bring it up so we'll remember that we've won nothing. No poll matters until we walk into our polling place to vote. It's all just interesting graphs and conversation points, but it doesn't mean a damn thing. If my Dean experience taught me anything, it's that the more I think I'm leading, the harder I need to work. Dean never seemed to get that, and I know his supporters never figured it out. I used to say it at Meetups, but only half-heartedly, because I knew I'd be a field organizer for Dean in the general .
We have to start taking Bush more seriously around here. Yes, he's painfully incompetent. Yes, his supporters baffle and frustrate us. Yes, Iraq is falling apart and our economy sucks...but wait. Jobs are coming back. People are switching jobs, a harbinger of hirings to come (we gotta fill those voluntarily vacated positions, right?). Inventories have been suppressed so long that companies are going to be forced into a prolonged bout of production to get us back to par. SOMETHING is going to happen in Iraq on June 30th. It may not be helpful, but there will be little trouble spinning it as keeping our word, and anyone who doesn't think the media will eat that line up didn't see footage of the "I have a scream" speech.
And really, who doesn't think we'll see an attack in the US between now and October? And do you think Americans will go Spain's route? They'll go for the safe and secure, if he hasn't already put us on lockdown and "postponed" elections for "continuity through this troubled time" .
The point is this: We sit here and blog about polls and pat ourselves on the back, and meanwhile these fucking people never rest. They're doing massive phonebanks already. What the hell are we doing? They're sending out buses to do voter registration. What the hell are we doing? Yeah, I know, we've got programs here and there, ACT is doing their thing. But where is our unified, ORGANIZED preparation for a vicious fight in the fall? We're all over the place! DLC is still crying about Dean, DFA tiffs with Trippi (and Kerry?), Kerry seems unwilling to engage a president who is still dangerous.
The sky, it must be noted, is far from falling. But while we've got ourselves an advantageous window, we need to work now to prop up our sky and expand it so we have cushion when it does fall (and it will, at least a little).
So, here I sit at 1:00 in the morning watching Back to the Future (don't ask - TBS is killing me) and ruminating. I hope I've given everyone something to think about. I know most of us are working and trying to get out in front of this thing, but once in a while, I think it's good to shake the tree and get a reminder that much work remains to be done.
posted by switzerblog at
1:11 AM
1 Comments:
I couldn't agree more about the danger of thinking that poll numbers = votes. The Republican campaign teams are smart, well-financed, and know how to take advantage of opportunities when they occur or make them occur. Between now and November there will many chances for them to convince the millions of people who don't really hate Bush at all to vote for him, for reasons this Switzer fellow has already outlined.
So what to do? Organize, organize, organize. Work, work, work. Make personal connections and keep making them until the last ballot is in. Don't be afraid to emulate Republican strategies (after all, they do win elections.) And Kerry advisors -- or those of us in a position to advise his advisers -- simply have to get him to get off his noble but and change his personal style to something that blue collar Joes and Janes can relate to. I don't know what the American electorate sees in G.W., but they do see something and it won't do for Democrats to say "Well, they shouldn't see anything because there's nothing there."
One last thought. Mr. Switzer says he is worried about the poll numbers. Me too, but I am also worried about not seeing any polls lately that break these numbers down in terms of electoral votes. Why isn't anyone counting or reporting those votes? Is it because it's more "fun" to see the presidential race in terms of simple blocks of popular votes? That isn't the way our electoral system works. Doesn't anyone remember Florida? Let's get realistic.
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